Trends in paddy production in Sri Lanka

Abstract

In recent years viability of the paddy production sector in Sri lutnka has been a question because of lack of net profit to the paddy-producing farmers. It has been well proved by the attitude of the young generation who diverge from the paddy cultivation. Even though the country could able to reach the self-sufficiency due to increased average yield and extent of cultivation it failed to satisfy the poor farmers. In this study an attempt is made to understand the past trends in paddy production in order to find out the reasons for the above discussed problems and to forecast the future requirements. Paddy production related variables such as extent sown, extent sown under different water sources, crop failure percentage, production, average yield, cost of production, standard of living of the farmers, rice consumption and imports of rice over the time have been analyzed using simple and complex time series analysis techniques and other statistical techniques. Future situations have been forecasted from the result of the analysis. During the last three decades cost of production increase is significantly higher than the increase of the selling price of paddy, which affected the standard of living of the farmers. At present in thefanner's point of view, still thex are cultivating paddy because of return to their own labor, lack of belter alternative jobs and the lowest investment for paddy. Therefore to uplift and keep viable the paddy production in Sri Lanka, the cost ofproduction, scale of cultivation and the market price have to be kept in control while keep on increasing the average yield. Results indicate that, a farmer to have a reasonable standard of living in 2006, at least 2.81 hectares to be cultivated by one farmer and the profit margin should he Rs. 2.32 per Kg paddy produced.