Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://ir.lib.seu.ac.lk/handle/123456789/370
Title: | Application of ARIMAX model for forecasting paddy production in Trincomalee district in Sri Lanka |
Authors: | Yogarajah, B Elankumaran, C Vigneswaran, R |
Keywords: | ARIMAX model Forecasting AIC SBC MAPE |
Issue Date: | 6-Jul-2013 |
Publisher: | South Eastern University of Sri lanka |
Citation: | Proceedings of the Third International Symposium 2013, pp. 21-25 |
Abstract: | In the post-war climes, the government’s mandates focus on reviving one of the paddy production region Trincomalee district in SriLanka to meet the growing demands of the nation. Such a rehabilitation program requires the understanding of how the paddy producing industry has fared along the historical time-lines. This understanding is essential for developing the necessary development plans for the Rice sector. When an ARIMA model includes other time series as input variables, the model is referred to as an ARIMAX model. Pankratz (1991). In this paper, ARIMAX model has been applied to forecast annual paddy production with includes rainfall time series as input variable for both seasons in this district. The validity of the model is verified with various model selection criteria such as Adj R2, minimum of AIC and SBC lowest MAPE values |
URI: | http://ir.lib.seu.ac.lk/handle/123456789/370 |
ISSN: | 9789556270426 |
Appears in Collections: | 3rd International Symposium - 2013 |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Application of ARIMAX Model.pdf | 634.47 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.